MOMENTOUS! 7 Global Trade Shifts for 2026 (Jan Update)
As the world transitions into 2026, international commerce has reached an unprecedented financial peak, yet it faces a regulatory and diplomatic “hard landing.” For global importers and exporters, the news between December 28, 2025, and January 10, 2026, provides the definitive roadmap for navigating the “Great Realignment” of supply chains.
At The Exporter Hub, we have analyzed the latest shifts from Geneva, Brussels, and Washington D.C. to ensure your business stays ahead of the curve.
1. The $35 Trillion Breakthrough: A New Era of Commerce
The most staggering news of the week comes from the final UNCTAD Global Trade Update. For the first time in human history, the total value of global trade in goods and services is projected to have exceeded $35 trillion by the end of 2025.
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Growth Breakdown: This represents a 7% increase over 2024. While goods trade grew by $1.5 trillion, the real engine was services, which surged by nearly 9%.
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The “Frontloading” Hangover: However, the WTO issued a sobering warning on January 8, 2026. Much of this surge was driven by “frontloading”—importers rushing to beat 2025 tariff hikes. Consequently, the 2026 growth forecast has been slashed to just 0.5%. Global traders should prepare for a “volume contraction” in Q1 as accumulated inventories are drawn down.
2. Regulatory Relief: EUDR Delay and “Simplification”
In a major victory for global commodity exporters, the European Union formally published the amendment to the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) in the Official Journal on December 23, 2025, with implementation details clarifying this week.
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New Deadlines: Large-scale global operators now have until December 30, 2026, to comply. Micro and small enterprises (SMEs) have a further grace period until June 30, 2027.
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Scope Change: “Printed products” have been officially removed from the regulation’s scope.
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The Trap: Do not be complacent. The geolocation requirements remain mandatory. Importers in the EU are already favoring “Verified Exporters” who have their digital traceability ready. This is where The Exporter Hub’s document verification becomes your competitive edge.
3. Policy Alert: USTR Signals “Hardline” USMCA Review
On January 6, 2026, U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer sent a shockwave through North American trade corridors. In a briefing to Congress, he stated the U.S. would not “rubber stamp” the extension of the USMCA during the upcoming July 2026 review.
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The Demand: Washington is seeking “concrete fixes” on rules of origin and “backdoor” imports from non-market economies.
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The Impact for Importers: If you are importing into the U.S. via Mexico or Canada, expect much tighter Regional Value Content (RVC) audits this year. Verification of your entire tier-2 and tier-3 supply chain is no longer optional.
4. Logistics: The “Slow Walk” Back to Suez
While the Red Sea has seen 100 days without a major attack as of January 7, 2026, global shipping is not returning to the Suez Canal as fast as expected.
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Current Status: Suez traffic remains 60% below 2023 levels.
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The Pivot: However, CMA CGM and Maersk have begun a “stepwise” return. The first Maersk vessel successfully transited in late December, and more “MEDEX” services are scheduled for Suez routings this month.
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The Benefit: A return to Suez cuts transit times by 14 days. For global exporters, this means faster cash-to-cash cycles—if your documents are verified and ready for rapid customs clearance.
5. Trust as the New Trade Barrier
As we enter 2026, “Policy Uncertainty” has been cited by the WTO as the single largest cost for global businesses. In this environment, The Exporter Hub serves as the vital bridge between reliable importers and verified exporters. By verifying past experiences and document authenticity, we transform “uncertainty” into “verified opportunity” in over 100 countries.
Source: UNCTAD – Global Trade to Hit Record $35 Trillion Despite slowing momentum (Jan 2026 Update)
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