MOMENTOUS! Global Trade Hits $35T: Week 52 Update

MOMENTOUS! Global Trade Hits $35T: Week 52 Update

The final full week of 2025 (December 21 – December 27) has delivered a series of historic closures and strategic warnings that will define the global trade landscape for the next decade. As the world transitions into 2026, international commerce has reached an unprecedented financial peak, yet it faces a regulatory and diplomatic “hard landing.”

For global importers and exporters, the news this week from Geneva, Brussels, and Washington D.C. provides the definitive roadmap for navigating the “Great Realignment” of supply chains.

1. The $35 Trillion Breakthrough: A New Era of Commerce

The most staggering news of the week comes from the final UNCTAD Global Trade Update. For the first time in human history, the total value of global trade in goods and services is projected to exceed $35 trillion by the end of 2025.

• Growth Breakdown: This represents a 7% increase over 2024. While goods trade grew by $1.5 trillion, the real engine was services, which surged by nearly 9% ($750 billion).

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• Sector Winners: Electronics remained the dominant force with 14% growth, largely driven by the global hunger for AI-related hardware and infrastructure.

• The South-South Pivot: Trade between developing economies (South-South trade) expanded by 8%, proving that emerging markets are no longer just suppliers but are becoming primary consumption hubs.

2. The EUDR Delay is Now Law: Analyzing the “Dec 23” Publication

On December 23, 2025, the European Union officially published the amendment to the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) in its Official Journal. This was the “breathing room” the global commodity market had been waiting for.

• New Deadlines: The enforcement for large operators is formally pushed to December 30, 2026. Micro and small enterprises (SMEs) have until June 30, 2027.

• Critical Simplifications: In a major victory for the global publishing and packaging industries, “printed products” (including books and newspapers) have been removed from the scope of the regulation.

• The Trap for Exporters: While the timeline has shifted, the geolocation and traceability requirements have not been weakened. The EU has scheduled a “simplification review” for April 2026, meaning exporters must remain vigilant; the rules could shift again before the new deadline.

3. USTR Signals “Hardline” USMCA 2026 Review

On December 22, 2025, U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer sent a shockwave through North American supply chains. Reporting to Congress on the upcoming July 2026 USMCA Review, Greer stated clearly that the U.S. would not “rubber stamp” an extension of the pact.

• Targeting “Backdoor” Imports: The U.S. will prioritize tightening Rules of Origin to combat offshoring. Specifically, the USTR is targeting Chinese-backed investments in Mexico that use the USMCA to bypass U.S. tariffs.

• Policy Alignment: The U.S. expects Canada and Mexico to align their external tariffs with Washington’s, particularly regarding steel, aluminum, and EVs.

• The Strategic Shift: For global importers, this means that “Regional Value Content” (RVC) calculations will become the most important compliance metric of 2026.

4. WTO’s Sinking Forecast: The 0.5% “New Normal”

In a sobering year-end update, the World Trade Organization (WTO) confirmed its downgraded growth forecast for 2026 to just 0.5%, down from its earlier 1.8% estimate.

• The “Frontloading” Hangover: Much of the 2025 trade surge was driven by “frontloading”—importers rushing to beat tariff hikes. As inventories sit full and new tariffs settle in, 2026 is expected to see a significant volume contraction.

• Trust as a Trade Barrier: The WTO highlighted that “policy uncertainty” is now the single largest cost for global businesses. This underscores the value of platforms like The Exporter Hub, where document verification and verified past performance provide the “trust currency” needed to bypass administrative bottlenecks.

5. India’s Global Leadership: The Kimberley Process

Reflecting a shift in global diplomatic roles, India formally assumed the Vice Chair of the Kimberley Process (KP) on December 25, 2025. India is set to take over as Chairperson on January 1, 2026. This position gives India a leading role in overseeing the global trade of conflict-free diamonds, reinforcing its status as a responsible leader in ethical trade and sustainable sourcing.

Source: UNCTAD – Global Trade Update (December 2025)