The third week of December 2025 has been a defining moment for the future of international commerce. As we approach the end of a volatile year, the global trade landscape is undergoing a “Great Realignment.” For users of The Exporter Hub, this week’s developments in trade policy and international agreements represent both a shield against protectionism and a roadmap for new market entries in 2026.
From the halls of the U.S. Congress to the signing tables in Muscat, here is the deep-dive research into the trade policies that will dictate your margins next year.
1. 🤝 The India-Oman CEPA: A New Gateway to the Gulf
In a landmark move on December 18, 2025, India and Oman officially signed a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA). While this is a bilateral deal, its implications are truly global.
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Near-Universal Duty Removal: Oman has offered zero-duty access on 98.08% of its tariff lines, covering nearly 99.4% of Indian exports by value.
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Strategic Hub for Global Traders: For international importers, this deal makes Oman a highly competitive transshipment and manufacturing hub. Global firms can now leverage Oman’s strategic location and its duty-free access to the Indian market for a wide array of industrial and consumer goods.
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Professional Mobility: The agreement includes an unprecedented framework for the movement of professionals, which will likely lead to a surge in service-based joint ventures in the Gulf region.
2. 🇺🇸 USMCA Review: USTR Signals “Hardline” 2026 Negotiations
On December 16 and 17, 2025, U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) Jamieson Greer briefed the House and Senate on the upcoming July 2026 USMCA Review. For any global exporter supplying the North American market, this was the most critical news of the week.
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Rules of Origin Tightening: Greer explicitly stated that “leakage” from third-party countries (specifically targeting Asian components being finished in Mexico or Canada) would be a primary target. The U.S. intends to ensure that the benefits of the agreement remain within the bloc.
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The “Sunset” Threat: The USTR hinted that the 16-year extension of the agreement is not guaranteed unless Mexico and Canada address unresolved agricultural disputes and labor enforcement.
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Global Impact: Importers in the U.S. should prepare for potential price increases in automotive and dairy sectors if the “Regional Value Content” (RVC) percentages are raised during the 2026 review.
3. 🇪🇺 EUDR Delay: A One-Year “Breathing Room” for Commodity Traders
In a major relief for global agriculture and forestry exporters, the European Parliament voted on December 17, 2025, to formally adopt a one-year delay to the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR).
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New Deadlines: Large operators now have until December 30, 2026, to comply, while micro and small enterprises have until June 30, 2027.
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What This Means: Global importers of coffee, cocoa, soy, rubber, and timber now have an additional 12 months to finalize their geolocation and traceability systems. However, the Parliament rejected any “weakening” of the environmental standards, meaning the strict data requirements remain; only the clock has been reset.
4. 🇲🇽 Mexico’s 50% Tariff Wall: A Shift Toward Regionalism
Following in the footsteps of recent U.S. trade actions, the Mexican Senate approved a new tariff regime this week that imposes duties of up to 50% on 1,400 product categories from non-FTA countries.
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Targeted Sectors: The tariffs primarily hit automobiles (rising from 20% to 50%), textiles, steel, and household appliances.
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The Strategic Move: Analysts suggest this is a “pre-emptive” move by Mexico to align with U.S. trade policy ahead of the 2026 USMCA review, showing Washington that Mexico is not a “backdoor” for low-cost Asian imports.
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Advice for Global Exporters: If your supply chain relies on Mexico as a gateway to the U.S., you must audit your “Country of Origin” status immediately. Shifting production to “Local Content” is no longer optional.
5. ⚖️ WTO Reform: The US Unveils a “Plurilateral” Future
On December 15, 2025, the United States presented a “maximalist” reform agenda at the WTO General Council in Geneva.
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The End of MFN?: The U.S. is challenging the core principle of Most-Favored-Nation (MFN) treatment, arguing that the system allows “non-market economies” to benefit unfairly.
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Plurilateral Focus: The U.S. is pushing for the WTO to become a platform for groups of like-minded countries to sign smaller agreements, rather than waiting for global consensus.
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Risk to Global Stability: This signals a move toward “fragmented trade,” where different rules apply to different “blocs.” Global traders must now navigate a maze of overlapping agreements rather than a single global rulebook.
Source: Press Information Bureau – India and Oman Sign CEPA (Dec 18, 2025)
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