CRITICAL! 5 Trade Policy Shifts Reshaping 2026

CRITICAL! 5 Trade Policy Shifts Reshaping 2026

The first two weeks of 2026 (December 28, 2025 – January 10, 2026) have sent a clear message to the international trading community: Predictability is the new luxury. As the “Great Realignment” of supply chains accelerates, global exporters and importers are facing a landscape where carbon costs are no longer theoretical, and the rules of North American trade are being rewritten.

At The Exporter Hub, we’ve analyzed the policy seismic shifts from Geneva, Brussels, and Washington to help you navigate this high-stakes year.

1. The WTO “Bleak” Forecast: 0.5% Growth for 2026

The World Trade Organization (WTO) opened January 2026 with a sobering revision. Citing the delayed impacts of 2025 tariff hikes and geopolitical fragmentation, the WTO has downgraded the 2026 global merchandise trade volume growth to just 0.5%.

• The “Front-Loading” Hangover: Much of the 2.4% growth seen in late 2025 was due to importers rushing to beat new tariffs. Now, as those inventories are drawn down, volume is expected to stall.

• Exporter Strategy: In a low-growth environment, market share is won through compliance and trust. Being a verified partner allows you to bypass the “policy friction” that is slowing down unverified shipments.

2. EUDR: The “Double-Delay” Miracle

In a move that surprised many, the European Parliament and Council finalized an amendment in late December 2025 to delay the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) for a second consecutive year.

• New Deadlines: Large-scale global operators now have until December 30, 2026, to comply. Micro and small enterprises (SMEs) have until June 30, 2027.

• The Caveat: The delay was granted primarily because the IT systems for geolocation data were not ready. However, the requirement for geolocation-to-plot documentation remains the core of the law.

• Action Item: Do not stop your preparations. Importers in the EU are already prioritizing “Pre-Verified” exporters who can prove their supply chains are deforestation-free ahead of the hard deadline.

3. CBAM: The “Definitive Phase” is Now Live

On January 1, 2026, the European Union’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) officially entered its “Definitive Phase.” This is a historic shift from mere reporting to actual financial liability.

• What Changed: Importers of steel, aluminum, cement, fertilizers, electricity, and hydrogen into the EU must now be registered as “Authorized CBAM Declarants.”

• The Cost: For the first time, emissions are linked to financial costs via the purchase of CBAM certificates, priced according to the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS).

• Verification is Key: To avoid overpaying, exporters must provide third-party verified emissions data. Using platforms like The Exporter Hub to host these verified credentials will be essential for maintaining price competitiveness in the EU market.

4. USMCA: The USTR “Economic Leverage” Strategy

The United States Trade Representative (USTR), Jamieson Greer, submitted a pivotal report to Congress on January 5, 2026, outlining the U.S. objectives for the upcoming USMCA 6-year review.

• No “Rubber Stamp”: Washington has signaled that the July 2026 review will be used as “economic leverage” to tighten rules of origin, particularly in the automotive and tech sectors.

• Non-Market Economies: A major focus will be preventing “backdoor” imports from non-market economies (specifically aiming at Chinese investments in Mexico).

• For Importers: If your supply chain relies on North American regional preferences, expect much stricter audits on Regional Value Content (RVC) this year.

5. Regional Realignment: Mexico and Oman

• Mexico’s Rice Quota: On January 5, 2026, Mexico’s Ministry of Economy published a 200,000 MT Tariff Rate Quota (TRQ) for paddy rice. While MFN rates were reimposed at 9%, this quota provides a vital window for global exporters to fill the supply gap.

• India-Oman CEPA: The Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement is entering its final implementation phase this month, promising immediate tariff elimination on a wide range of industrial goods.

Source: WTO – WTO downgrades global trade growth forecast to 0.5% for 2026 amid policy uncertainty