The week of December 14–20, 2025, has sent a clear message to the global trade community: the era of high-priced energy is cooling, while the competition for “green” industrial metals is reaching a boiling point. For global importers and exporters, this week’s shifts in the Raw Material & Commodity Market represent a fundamental realignment of production costs and supply chain risks for the coming 2026 fiscal year.
1. ⛽ Energy Crash: Brent Crude Breaches Psychological $60 Support
In a move that caught many energy traders off-guard, Brent Crude futures plunged below the psychologically critical $60 per barrel mark on Tuesday, December 16, 2025. This is the first time oil has traded in the “50s” since May 2025.
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The Surplus Factor: Market data now confirms a massive global oil surplus of approximately 2.1 million barrels per day. This is largely due to record-shattering US shale production (exceeding 13.5 million bpd) and a strategic pivot by OPEC+.
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OPEC+ Strategy Shift: Led by Saudi Arabia and the UAE, OPEC+ has moved away from artificial supply constraints to protect market share. Ministerial reports this week indicate that several members are ramping up production toward a collective 28–29 million bpd.
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Exporter Insight: For global logistics providers and manufacturers, this drop in crude suggests that bunker surcharges and inland freight costs should see a significant downward correction in Q1 2026. However, the volatility remains high as markets weigh this surplus against 2026 demand forecasts.
2. ⚡ Industrial Metals: Copper’s $11,816 Spot vs. Backwardation
While energy is falling, Copper is telling a story of extreme physical scarcity. On the London Metal Exchange (LME), copper spot prices hovered near $11,816 per tonne this week.
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The “Backwardation” Trap: The market is currently in a state of backwardation, where the spot price is significantly higher than the three-month futures price. This indicates that buyers are desperate for immediate delivery due to low exchange inventories.
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Supply Disruptions: Supply fears were heightened this week by a “mining-license cleanup” in China’s lithium and tin hubs, which has restricted output. For exporters of electrical machinery and EV components, the high cost of raw copper is now the primary driver of finished-goods inflation.
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Long-Term Outlook: Despite the high spot prices, the World Bank’s latest update suggests that if prices do not stabilize near $10,000/tonne, new mining investments may be delayed, further tightening the medium-term outlook for 2027.
3. 🌾 Agriculture: Record Wheat Yields vs. The EUDR “Bailout”
Global food commodity markets are experiencing a “bumper crop” reality, though regulatory relief was the biggest headline of the week.
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Record Wheat Harvests: The USDA confirmed this week that Argentina is set for a record wheat production of 24 million metric tons, while the EU hit 144 million tons. This massive supply is keeping global wheat prices under pressure, a win for food importers but a challenge for North American farmers.
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The EUDR Delay: In a historic vote on December 18, 2025, the European Parliament officially adopted a one-year delay for the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR).
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New Deadline: Large operators now have until December 30, 2026, to comply.
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Impact: This provides an immediate “breathing room” for global exporters of coffee, cocoa, soy, and rubber who were facing a total market lockout. However, exporters should not stop their tracing efforts, as the “low-risk” country benchmarking system is now active.
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4. 🔋 Critical Minerals: Rare Earths & Lithium Rally
Critical minerals saw a rare double-digit jump this week, driven by policy shifts in both the East and West.
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China’s Rare Earth Surge: China reported a 26.5% jump in rare earth export
s this week, even as it implemented more streamlined “general licenses.”
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US Mining “Deals”: In Washington, the National Energy Dominance Council announced plans for “historic deals” with the US mining sector, including a $7.4 billion refinery project. This signifies a shift from regulation to direct capital injection to secure the battery supply chain.
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